Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd69f…6157 world 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%31W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$14
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$26
other 20% −$2
sports 14% −$5
politics 12% −$9
economics 5% −$15
finance 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.3% -4.8% 40% 20% -8.7%
≤30d 35 +58.5% +43.4% 31% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 88 +22.4% +10.7% 30% 5% -9.5%
all 106 +18.5% +7.2% 29% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -3.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -12.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -21.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses31 / 75
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage332d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $463 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $328 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $172 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $192 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $19 +$3 +16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $389 +$3 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $172 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $67 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $124 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $319 −$8 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $140 +$5 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $507 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $420 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $278 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $140 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $147 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $142 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $288 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $238 +$6 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $286 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $111 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $143 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $170 +$19 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $156 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $114 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $16 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $59 −$8 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $12 −$3 -27%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $131 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $6 $0 -8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $154 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $145 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $132 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $133 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $319 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $275 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $172 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $172 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $172 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $172 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $48 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $70 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $89 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $173 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $172 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $172 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $172 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $132 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $132 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records