Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6ab…1533 crypto 55 markets active 2d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$710 (+38%) realized +$710 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$773
14 days+$511
30 days+$672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$701
crypto 18% +$3
world 8% −$115
other 8% +$83
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.7% +11.0% 50% 40% +80.1%
≤30d 55 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 31% +23.1%
≤90d 55 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 31% +23.1%
all 55 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 31% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 31% +23.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 29% +11.4%
15% -26.2% 25% +0.6%
20% -33.4% 18% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$20 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage16d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $175 +$534 +305%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $230 +$386 +168%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $70 +$77 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $40 +$32 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $400 −$243 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -21%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $157 +$172 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$4 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $22 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$16 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$1 -25%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET May 31 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11AM ET May 31 $19 +$5 +27%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11AM ET May 31 $4 +$11 +249%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -38%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -31%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $16 −$7 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $8 +$7 +88%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $17 −$3 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$1 -14%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $16 +$5 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $113 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $50 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $50 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $50 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes $3 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $48 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $50 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $3 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $20 10d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 44¢ $157 12d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $1 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $1 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $1 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 543 history records