Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd6ac…e2a8 sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,592 (+19%) realized +$1,578 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%77W / 95L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$612
7 days+$749
14 days+$807
30 days+$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,328
other 3% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +20.1% +8.7% 55% 55% +27.8%
≤30d 88 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 42% +7.2%
≤90d 172 +16.5% +5.4% 45% 43% +6.6%
all 172 +16.5% +5.4% 45% 43% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 43% +6.6%
10% -4.7% 42% -3.6%
15% -13.9% 40% -12.9%
20% -22.3% 37% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$34 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,578
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses77 / 95
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage76d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 100¢ $35 $49 +$14 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $277 +$213 +77%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $56 +$57 +103%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 23 $96 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $73 +$44 +61%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 23 $124 +$141 +114%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $122 −$10 -8%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $153 +$316 +206%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $240 +$161 +67%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $76 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $60 −$59 -99%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $60 +$58 +97%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $72 +$37 +51%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $52 +$97 +188%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$79 -98%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $60 +$58 +97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $37 −$26 -71%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$15 -48%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 +$127 +147%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $58 +$54 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $24 −$8 -32%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $29 +$95 +333%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $29 −$28 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $28 +$87 +314%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $58 +$58 +101%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $50 +$59 +118%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $46 −$31 -67%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -97%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 07 $4 +$8 +188%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $56 −$55 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $35 39m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $489 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 65¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $68 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 58¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL shimmer 100¢ $113 9h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 49¢ $56 10h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 42¢ $48 12h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 42¢ $48 12h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $117 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 61¢ $73 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 39¢ $56 18h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $124 18h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 50¢ $112 22h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 53¢ $122 35h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 100¢ $469 45h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 33¢ $42 46h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 29¢ $36 46h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 31¢ $37 46h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 35¢ $39 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $401 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $114 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $126 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 30¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 31¢ $76 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 42¢ $35 3d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 29¢ $1 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.82 · official $48.82 (match) · 331 history records