Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6ad…6a6b sports 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$88 (+2%) realized +$91 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%55W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$29
sports 17% −$111
world 3% +$1
politics 2% +$139
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +45.0% +31.2% 20% 13% -12.8%
≤30d 143 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 36% -6.2%
≤90d 143 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 36% -6.2%
all 143 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 36% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 36% -6.2%
10% -19.0% 32% -15.1%
15% -26.9% 31% -23.3%
20% -34.0% 31% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses55 / 88
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions11
Markets (closed)143 / 154
History coverage28d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 42¢ 64¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ 38¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $212 −$19 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 18 $329 −$28 -8%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 18 $47 −$2 -5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $20 −$3 -14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $11 −$5 -43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$85 +874%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $27 +$74 +279%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $41 +$168 +414%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $4 +$8 +184%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $4 +$6 +140%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $4 $0 -12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $4 +$6 +149%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $4 +$5 +124%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $2 +$2 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $4 +$7 +163%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $4 −$1 -16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $2 +$2 +119%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $6 −$2 -27%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $4 +$1 +17%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 +$5 +134%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $4 $0 -12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $4 +$1 +20%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $4 −$1 -14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $2 +$2 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $4 +$5 +119%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 0m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 2m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 36¢ $36 17m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 37¢ $38 19m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 22m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 23m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 38¢ $37 28m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 48¢ $49 30m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 40¢ $39 30m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 49¢ $50 33m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 41¢ $40 33m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $51 35m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 45¢ $44 35m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 52¢ $53 37m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 51¢ $50 38m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 53¢ $50 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 53¢ $3 40m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 52¢ $51 40m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 53¢ $50 41m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 53¢ $3 42m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 52¢ $44 42m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 53¢ $53 44m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 53¢ $13 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 46m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.66 · official $53.22 (match) · 488 history records