Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd6ae…1962 crypto 1526 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%1256W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$50
14 days+$61
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 467 +1.1% -8.5% 87% 10% -9.0%
≤90d 1526 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 7% -10.8%
all 1526 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 7% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 7% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 6% -19.4%
15% -28.8% 4% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1256 / 270
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1526 / 1526
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1526 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records