Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6b2…1bec sports 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-4%) realized −$118 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate33%106W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$112
other 27% −$45
sports 22% −$53
politics 1% −$4
tech 0% −$8
world 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 36% 33% -19.3%
≤30d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 36% 33% -19.3%
≤90d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 36% 33% -19.3%
all 317 -30.6% -37.2% 33% 12% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 12% -16.9%
10% -43.2% 7% -24.9%
15% -48.7% 5% -32.1%
20% -53.8% 4% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses106 / 211
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)317 / 322
History coverage117d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$21 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$45 +73%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $82 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $68 −$22 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +123%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $85 −$11 -12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$54 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 18 $51 −$40 -78%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $28 +$38 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$6 +23%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals AND Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals AND Patrik Schick Jun 18 $5 −$4 -82%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $34 −$26 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -19%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$45 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $184 −$20 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$37 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$33 +37%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 −$9 -14%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $6 $0 +2%
Spread: Smouha SC (-1.5) Mar 05 $0 +$2 +1329%
Meta (META) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 05 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $23 Feb 23–Mar 1 Mar 05 $7 −$2 -26%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Montana State Bobcats (W) Mar 05 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: CD Tolima (-2.5) Mar 05 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 05 $16 −$3 -16%
Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Mar 05 $6 +$2 +32%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-1.5) Mar 05 $6 $0 -2%
San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 Mar 05 $6 $0 -1%
Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline Mar 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 2? Mar 05 $6 +$6 +105%
Will CD Tolima vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw? Mar 05 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Imperial (BO5) - PGL Bucharest: South American Mar 05 $11 +$10 +89%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 2? Mar 05 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 3? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $79 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $24 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $41 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $65 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 19m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $44 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $32 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $35 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $19 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.25 · official $187.25 · 1121 history records