Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6b3…2a27 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$3
other 32% −$1
politics 8% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 0% -9.0%
all 54 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage453d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $26 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $28 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $17 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $8 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $10 $0 -4%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $26 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $22 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $26 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 17h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $21 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $30 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $32 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $29 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $29 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $26 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $20 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.54 · official $29.39 (match) · 163 history records