Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6b4…b468 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,216 (-9%) realized −$4,163 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%57W / 38L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$116
14 days−$509
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,851
other 8% −$676
tech 2% −$200
politics 1% −$40
world 1% +$394
economics 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +63.4% +47.8% 100% 100% +46.4%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 64% -20.2%
≤90d 22 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 59% -26.5%
all 95 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 39% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -17.6%
10% -22.5% 32% -25.5%
15% -30.0% 24% -32.7%
20% -36.8% 17% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$336 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$4,163
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses57 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions4
Markets (closed)95 / 100
History coverage580d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Under 73¢ 40¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 35¢ 28¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $51 +$26 +52%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $45 +$19 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $41 +$43 +105%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $438 −$434 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $406 +$427 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $215 −$211 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $408 +$213 +52%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $236 −$236 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $403 −$399 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $506 +$341 +67%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 15 $512 +$88 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $504 −$499 -99%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $502 +$86 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $9,412 −$8,654 -92%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 25 $3,908 +$281 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $3,007 +$254 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar May 25 $3,009 +$324 +11%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 25 $2,052 +$648 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $3,853 +$462 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic May 24 $2,846 +$62 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Belinda Bencic May 24 $2,309 +$641 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $6,312 +$2,970 +47%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Jun 23 $105 −$10 -10%
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 03 $3 −$2 -65%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 03 $2 +$1 +55%
Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration? Feb 03 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 19 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Jan 06 $262 −$9 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 06 $756 −$194 -26%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 06 $74 +$25 +34%
Suns vs. Pacers Jan 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Jan 05 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? Jan 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $139 +$10 +7%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jan 04 $128 −$17 -13%
Will Ukraine join NATO before July? Jan 03 $3 −$1 -14%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 03 $554 +$353 +64%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? Jan 02 $617 +$290 +47%
UK election called before 2025? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? Dec 29 $583 −$583 -100%
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Dec 28 $78 −$4 -5%
Hyperliquid exploit before February? Dec 24 $97 +$2 +2%
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30? Dec 24 $18 −$4 -22%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Dec 24 $7 −$3 -40%
Bird flu declared public health emergency before April? Dec 24 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June? Dec 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Dec 23 $62 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win BUY 83¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $25 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $25 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Jaime Faria 65¢ $51 8h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 64¢ $51 11h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 25h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 70¢ $438 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $215 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $406 9d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $486 9d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $136 9d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 65¢ $408 9d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $210 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $3 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $3 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $1 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $3 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $8 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $6 10d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $1 10d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $202 10d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67¢ $201 10d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 59¢ $506 10d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $10 10d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $494 10d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool BUY Cash/Glasspool 85¢ $512 10d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 85¢ $502 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.82 · official $146.68 · 544 history records