Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6b4…c474 crypto 1950 markets active 1d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$869 (+3%) realized +$869 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%957W / 842L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$334
14 days+$1,309
30 days+$2,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,295
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +14.0% +3.2% 55% 55% +6.2%
≤30d 1269 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% -0.7%
≤90d 1799 +6.6% -3.5% 53% 53% -1.9%
all 1799 +6.6% -3.5% 53% 53% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 53% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 51% -11.3%
15% -21.2% 44% -19.9%
20% -28.9% 36% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$869
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses957 / 842
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1799 / 1950
History coverage52d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1799 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$22 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$23 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$25 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$18 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$18 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$17 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$15 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$7 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$24 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$26 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$22 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$28 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$23 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$26 +261%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$26 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $12 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $12 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3123 history records