Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6b5…8723 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 762d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$216 (+3%) realized +$164 · open +$52
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$205
14 days+$195
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1
other 23% +$227
sports 7% −$50
crypto 4% +$3
politics 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +26.6% +14.5% 83% 50% +13.9%
≤30d 22 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 45% +6.9%
≤90d 22 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 45% +6.9%
all 26 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 42% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 42% +2.9%
10% -29.7% 38% -6.9%
15% -36.5% 31% -15.9%
20% -42.7% 27% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

762d coverage
Net worth$4,255
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage762d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,729 $1,738 +$10 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 70¢ $1,469 $1,459 −$10 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $1,005 $1,058 +$52 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $400 +$200 +50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $264 +$6 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $23 +$21 +93%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$17 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$12 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$22 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $30 +$27 +90%
New York Rangers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by Friday? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? Jun 02 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1,001 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,015 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $400 37h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $42 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $51 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $6 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $5 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $62 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $18 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $36 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $92 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $252 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $5 40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $46 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $48 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 47¢ $16 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $23 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $1,340 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $12 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $8 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $19 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $7 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $2 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $32 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $49 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,730 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,254.61 · official $4,254.61 (match) · 130 history records