Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6b6…af8b crypto 382 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,639 (+6%) realized +$22,931 · open +$708
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate76%282W / 91L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$994per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$842
7 days−$2,230
14 days−$2,427
30 days−$1,927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$21,246
economics 3% +$1,502
tech 3% +$1,099
other 2% −$762
finance 2% +$806
politics 1% −$79
world 0% +$70
sports 0% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -43.1% -48.5% 38% 38% -57.6%
≤30d 23 -12.9% -21.2% 61% 43% -19.4%
≤90d 51 +1.2% -8.4% 80% 49% -8.4%
all 373 +5.0% -5.0% 76% 53% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 53% -4.0%
10% -14.1% 25% -13.2%
15% -22.4% 12% -21.6%
20% -30.0% 6% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,215) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$345 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$9,099
Realized+$22,931
Unrealized+$708
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses282 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)373 / 382
History coverage490d
Avg bet$994
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,872 $1,973 +$101 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $1,329 $1,456 +$127 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 85¢ 97¢ $1,274 $1,453 +$179 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $910 $986 +$76 (+8%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $948 $986 +$38 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $898 $984 +$86 (+10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 84¢ 94¢ $840 $938 +$98 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $232 $237 +$5 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $89 $87 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $306 −$142 -47%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $711 −$700 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $860 +$140 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 17 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 17 $1,329 −$1,329 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $286 +$114 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $275 +$125 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $453 +$147 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 09 $1,155 −$80 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 09 $1,245 −$264 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 06 $643 +$7 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 06 $597 +$120 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $2,112 +$71 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 06 $1,275 +$225 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 04 $773 −$56 -7%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 02 $450 +$150 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $634 +$166 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $916 +$84 +9%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 02 $850 +$150 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $925 +$75 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 01 $879 +$121 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $613 −$613 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 in May? May 07 $17 +$9 +52%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? May 07 $860 +$43 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 07 $933 +$67 +7%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April? May 01 $182 +$17 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 01 $343 +$6 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 01 $638 +$151 +24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? May 01 $757 +$40 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $899 +$93 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $1,579 +$54 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 01 $1,840 +$154 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $1,010 +$130 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 20 $761 +$222 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $448 +$327 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 15 $900 +$96 +11%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in March? Apr 01 $600 +$67 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 01 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 01 $860 +$140 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,071 +$57 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $830 +$170 +20%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 01 $900 +$100 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 01 $797 +$203 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Apr 01 $880 +$124 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,069 +$93 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $1,335 +$165 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $591 +$39 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $1,458 +$171 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $163 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $711 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $178 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 73¢ $1,076 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $982 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $916 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,245 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 75¢ $402 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $650 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $717 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,275 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $597 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $290 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $350 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 83¢ $840 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 83¢ $259 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $717 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $875 17d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 95¢ $929 17d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 95¢ $19 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 84¢ $849 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,099.44 · official $9,099.44 (match) · 1701 history records