Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6ba…d1bb crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-7%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%101W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$45
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$66
sports 7% −$1
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -10.4% -18.9% 55% 53% -15.4%
≤30d 196 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 49% -17.2%
≤90d 196 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 49% -17.2%
all 196 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 49% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 49% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 41% -25.1%
15% -34.6% 27% -32.3%
20% -41.0% 15% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses101 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records