Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd6bf…c1f5 crypto 932 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,231 (+3%) realized +$2,148 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%489W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day295.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,325
other 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 759 +6.4% -3.7% 50% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 931 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 51% -11.6%
≤90d 931 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 51% -11.6%
all 931 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 51% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 51% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -20.0%
15% -21.9% 46% -27.8%
20% -29.6% 39% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$87 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$2,148
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses489 / 442
Open positions1
Markets (closed)931 / 932
History coverage10d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day295.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 62¢ 90¢ $191 $274 +$83 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 396 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $159 −$152 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$44 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $181 +$382 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $350 −$337 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $343 −$329 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$198 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$198 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $339 −$327 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $301 −$289 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$49 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $139 −$134 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$236 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $239 −$231 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$160 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $193 −$185 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$162 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$202 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$152 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$49 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$75 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$27 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$47 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$44 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$74 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$41 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$28 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$77 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $80 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $125 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $246 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $38 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $120 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $19 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $68 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $195 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $195 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $47 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $76 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $181 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $315 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $42 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $285 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $48 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $99 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $196 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $257 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $243 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $261 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $206 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $91 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.97 · official $225.26 · 3205 history records