Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6c1…82b3 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (333 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-7%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day333.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (333 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.5% -4.5% 28% 16% -15.7%
≤30d 32 +5.5% -4.5% 28% 16% -15.7%
≤90d 32 +5.5% -4.5% 28% 16% -15.7%
all 32 +5.5% -4.5% 28% 16% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover333.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 16% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 6% -23.8%
15% -22.0% 3% -31.1%
20% -29.6% 3% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day333.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$5 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$2 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$47 +953%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$4 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $0 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $0 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $0 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records