Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D6 0xd6c4…4801 other 6 markets active 16h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$812 (-26%) realized −$812 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,511
7 days−$977
14 days−$977
30 days−$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$977
sports 22% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.7% +24.6% 67% 67% -45.5%
≤30d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 75% 75% -29.2%
≤90d 5 +16.5% +5.4% 60% 60% -33.5%
all 5 +16.5% +5.4% 60% 60% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 60% -33.5%
10% -4.7% 60% -39.9%
15% -13.9% 60% -45.7%
20% -22.3% 40% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$853 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage95d
Avg bet$526
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $98 +$167 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $846 +$367 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $499 +$335 +67%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $199 −$195 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,511 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $265 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,213 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $795 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $98 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $834 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $497 29d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 40d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 43d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 55d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 22¢ $99 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.97 (match) · 18 history records