Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6c8…2b27 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,289 (-1%) realized −$1,289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%30W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,209per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$29
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
politics 31% −$73
sports 18% −$1,183
economics 5% −$12
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +1.6% -8.1% 11% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 77 -14.0% -22.1% 8% 4% -11.2%
all 132 -2.5% -11.8% 23% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 11% -10.3%
10% -20.2% 11% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 9% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,727) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$1,289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses30 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,209
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $359 $359 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $275 $275 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,040 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $683 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,940 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,811 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,785 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,508 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $58 +$48 +83%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $254 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $466 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,895 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,799 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $415 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $584 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $566 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $63 +$48 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $73 +$54 +73%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $2,094 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,150 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $2,390 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $286 23h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $287 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $763 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $646 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $647 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $691 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $692 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $637 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $638 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $722 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $722 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $682 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $683 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $674 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $675 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $360 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,045 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $902 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $903 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,005 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,185 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $381 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $806 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,032 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.80 · official $633.80 (match) · 507 history records