Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6c8…6327 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days−$205
14 days−$121
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$178
other 47% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -57.6% -61.6% 25% 17% -35.6%
≤30d 26 -40.2% -45.9% 27% 23% -21.8%
≤90d 43 -25.9% -33.0% 30% 28% -10.6%
all 43 -25.9% -33.0% 30% 28% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 28% -10.6%
10% -39.4% 28% -19.2%
15% -45.3% 28% -27.0%
20% -50.6% 28% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$31 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage56d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $150 +$9 +6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $71 +$78 +109%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 2 Romania? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Georgia vs. Romania: Draw at halftime? Jun 02 $31 +$37 +121%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 1 Romania? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $51 +$77 +151%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $88 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $114 −$6 -5%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 14 $26 +$46 +172%
Exact Score: VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 08 $51 +$68 +134%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC? May 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $41 +$181 +442%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) May 01 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $111 +$82 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $49 +$63 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $150 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $36 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 36h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $71 36h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 37h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 41¢ $92 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 2 Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 20d
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 2 Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 20d
Georgia vs. Romania: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 20d
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 1 Romania? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 20d
Georgia vs. Romania: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 20d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $128 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 23d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 23d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $102 23d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $88 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records