Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D6 0xd6cc…4526 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,418 (+22%) realized +$189 · open +$3,229
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$13,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$3,519
other 24% −$10
politics 2% −$47
sports 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 6 -25.0% -32.2% 17% 17% -28.5%
≤90d 8 -12.7% -21.1% 25% 25% +11.0%
all 9 -11.2% -19.7% 33% 22% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 22% -5.1%
10% -27.4% 22% -14.2%
15% -34.4% 22% -22.5%
20% -40.8% 22% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$13 · ×7.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$13,903
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$3,229
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions31
Markets (closed)9 / 40
History coverage312d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 68¢ $3,573 $5,501 +$1,928 (+54%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $1,688 $2,365 +$677 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 40¢ $944 $1,434 +$490 (+52%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $852 $960 +$108 (+13%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $712 $704 −$8 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $415 $486 +$71 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $401 $450 +$49 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $286 $368 +$83 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $295 $240 −$55 (-19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $184 $221 +$37 (+20%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $162 $156 −$7 (-4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $189 $148 −$41 (-22%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $220 $129 −$91 (-41%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $93 $80 −$13 (-14%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $49 $78 +$29 (+59%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $73 +$13 (+21%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $65 −$17 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $57 −$18 (-24%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $46 $50 +$5 (+10%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $37 $43 +$6 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$25 +95%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $86 −$14 -16%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $53 −$7 -13%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $37 −$6 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $482 +$242 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 13 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Aug 11 $3,618 +$29 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $68 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $509 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 2h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $213 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 67¢ $17 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $43 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 5d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 5d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 5d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 5d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $54 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $43 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $46 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,902.77 · official $13,903.15 (match) · 176 history records