Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd6cd…622d crypto 967 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%542W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$80
other 2% −$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 671 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 50% -11.6%
≤30d 671 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 50% -11.6%
≤90d 961 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 46% -10.4%
all 961 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 46% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 46% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 41% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 36% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses542 / 419
Open positions6
Markets (closed)961 / 967
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 961 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 60¢ 74¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+24%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? No 45¢ 34¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25? No 83¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? No 93¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25? No 49¢ 68¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+40%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 25? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$26 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$13 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$17 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$12 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$34 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$13 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$14 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$14 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$32 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$11 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$14 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$12 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$33 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$22 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$16 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$25 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$26 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$2 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$15 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$9 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$10 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$31 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$16 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$5 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$4 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$13 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$19 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$14 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$5 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $17 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 83¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.37 · official $86.40 (match) · 3500 history records