Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd6cd…eaec weather 171 markets active 3h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$338 (+3%) realized +$340 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate79%132W / 36L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$194
14 days+$149
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$304
crypto 5% −$16
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.8% -2.5% 78% 28% -4.9%
≤30d 168 +4.3% -5.7% 79% 22% -7.4%
≤90d 168 +4.3% -5.7% 79% 22% -7.4%
all 168 +4.3% -5.7% 79% 22% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 22% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 11% -16.2%
15% -22.9% 7% -24.3%
20% -30.5% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$340
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses132 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage18d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$21 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $145 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $224 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$27 +518%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$9 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $97 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $138 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $75 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $119 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $116 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $147 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $63 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 +$20 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$8 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $257 −$6 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 84¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $104 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $24 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $77 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $29 22h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $47 25h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $29 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.68 · official $16.68 (match) · 795 history records