Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6cd…dbc1 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,589 (+31%) realized +$1,589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day187.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 39% +17.3%
≤30d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 39% +17.3%
≤90d 23 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 39% +17.3%
all 23 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 39% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 39% +17.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 39% +6.1%
15% -38.3% 35% -4.1%
20% -44.4% 35% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$75 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day187.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $1,256 +$866 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $200 +$200 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $676 +$509 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $423 −$207 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $237 −$49 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $58 −$26 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $170 +$112 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $230 +$148 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $44 −$36 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $440 +$306 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $370 +$331 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $109 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $99 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $114 +$105 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 59¢ $1,107 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 59¢ $149 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $91 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $91 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $72 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $93 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $112 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records