Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6cf…0425 sports 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,127 (-8%) realized −$1,130 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%182W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$554
14 days+$456
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,109
other 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +24.9% +13.0% 83% 83% +9.9%
≤30d 34 +13.7% +2.9% 76% 76% +3.8%
≤90d 292 -6.2% -15.1% 62% 60% -16.7%
all 294 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 60% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 60% -16.5%
10% -22.7% 46% -24.5%
15% -30.2% 30% -31.8%
20% -37.1% 24% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$1,130
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses182 / 112
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions2
Markets (closed)294 / 296
History coverage90d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $97 +$106 +109%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $101 +$51 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $95 −$95 -100%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $91 +$25 +27%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $68 −$67 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $210 +$49 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $300 +$149 +50%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $200 −$198 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 +$32 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 +$10 +107%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$23 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $46 +$14 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$57 +57%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$12 +30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +53%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$9 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$26 +51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $121 +$31 +26%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $71 +$75 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $200 +$120 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $40 −$39 -99%
Cuiabá EC vs. CR Brasil: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $13 −$13 -99%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 May 31 $15 +$3 +20%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
FK Dinamo Moskva vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Birmingham City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
FC København vs. Odense BK: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $30 +$10 +33%
HNK Vukovar 1991 vs. HNK Gorica: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $40 +$12 +30%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
FMP vs. BC Vienna Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Moreirense FC vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5 Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $40 +$40 +99%
Chennaiyin FC vs. Mohammedan SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $97 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $152 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 65¢ $101 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Christian Rodriguez 100¢ $147 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $151 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $101 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $95 2h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $172 3h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 3h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 4h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $91 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $68 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $260 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $9 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $449 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $300 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $100 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $100 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $100 30h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $40 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.66 · official $202.66 (match) · 627 history records