Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D6 0xd6cf…d3f0 sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,263 (+3%) realized +$2,309 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%56W / 64L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$440est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$459
7 days+$1,991
14 days+$2,150
30 days+$2,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,791
sports 21% −$552
world 19% +$295
crypto 3% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +21.4% +9.9% 57% 57% -5.1%
≤30d 76 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 117 +13.9% +3.1% 47% 40% -5.8%
all 120 +13.3% +2.5% 47% 40% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 40% -7.7%
10% -7.3% 32% -16.5%
15% -16.3% 23% -24.6%
20% -24.5% 17% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +28% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$166 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized+$2,309
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses56 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$440
Open positions4
Markets (closed)120 / 136
History coverage189d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $800 $758 −$42 (-5%)
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6,998 +$2,484 +36%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea Jun 26 $795 −$162 -20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,998 −$1,180 -59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $899 −$886 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $520 −$162 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $547 +$453 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $679 +$211 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8,038 −$247 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,668 +$1,838 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,120 +$968 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,024 −$2,779 -55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $76 +$118 +155%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $509 +$711 +140%
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +24%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,856 −$10 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $204 +$50 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams Jun 21 $51 +$72 +142%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,353 +$647 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21 Jun 20 $54 −$37 -68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $102 −$57 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $145 +$55 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $102 +$201 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $200 +$40 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $137 +$31 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $176 +$47 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $85 +$40 +47%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $245 +$15 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $6 −$3 -55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $612 +$170 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,717 −$272 -16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $460 +$75 +16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $350 +$82 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $386 +$46 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $515 −$100 -19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $430 +$30 +7%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $458 +$28 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $26 −$21 -83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Jun 12 $41 −$25 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,730 +$425 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 −$22 -73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $35 +$32 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $151 −$96 -63%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $290 +$58 +20%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $287 −$37 -13%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $620 +$155 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $9,482 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea SELL 17¢ $634 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $6,998 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea BUY 20¢ $795 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $39 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $717 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $33 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $983 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $899 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 31h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 50¢ $291 33h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 50¢ $27 33h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 50¢ $40 33h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $520 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $636 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $254 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $679 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $7,668 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $7,786 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $8,038 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,111 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.94 · official $766.08 (match) · 733 history records