Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d1…9210 other 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$40
sports 22% −$18
politics 8% −$9
culture 8% −$8
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage128d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $639 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $361 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $374 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $327 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $348 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $306 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $601 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $305 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 6m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 6h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 8h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 13h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $46 15h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $47 16h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $47 22h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 28h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 29h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 31h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 33h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 35h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 38h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $47 39h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 43h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 44h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 47h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1377 history records