Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd6d3…161c world 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,117 (+6%) realized +$1,982 · open +$1,135
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%76W / 52L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$7,972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$4,761
politics 15% +$428
other 4% −$775
economics 4% +$835
crypto 3% +$16
sports 3% +$677
finance 2% +$15
tech 0% −$75
culture 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +91.0% +72.8% 100% 100% +93.8%
≤30d 41 +0.7% -8.9% 66% 37% +19.8%
≤90d 92 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 36% +0.3%
all 128 +17.1% +6.0% 59% 35% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 35% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 24% -8.8%
15% -13.4% 17% -17.6%
20% -21.9% 13% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$118 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$7,972
Realized+$1,982
Unrealized+$1,135
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses76 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions21
Markets (closed)128 / 149
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$344
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,993 $1,960 −$34 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 88¢ $1,448 $1,883 +$436 (+30%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 77¢ 99¢ $906 $1,162 +$256 (+28%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 52¢ 84¢ $345 $562 +$217 (+63%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 79¢ 100¢ $350 $443 +$93 (+26%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $397 $413 +$16 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $307 $311 +$5 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 99¢ $255 $305 +$51 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $281 $282 +$1 (+0%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 58¢ 92¢ $122 $192 +$70 (+57%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 84¢ $173 $174 +$1 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 74¢ $65 $100 +$35 (+54%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 77¢ $58 $67 +$9 (+15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $33 $36 +$4 (+11%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $13 $1 −$13 (-95%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $506 +$117 +23%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $162 +$80 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $792 +$1,506 +190%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $289 +$293 +101%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $455 +$158 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9 +$6 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $69 −$15 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $120 −$65 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $122 +$125 +102%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $137 +$7 +5%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $137 +$14 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,001 +$265 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 −$29 -52%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $124 −$72 -58%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $279 +$13 +5%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $110 −$29 -27%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 03 $337 +$160 +47%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 01 $132 −$125 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $134 +$11 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $64 +$9 +14%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$2 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $401 +$208 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $309 +$13 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 31 $51 +$4 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $290 +$49 +17%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $12 −$12 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $386 −$135 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $103 −$55 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $299 −$104 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $465 −$213 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $45 −$31 -69%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $7 −$6 -82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $581 +$345 +59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $32 +$4 +12%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1,124 +$155 +14%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 13 $7 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $47 −$11 -23%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $612 +$55 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $789 +$273 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $524 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $280 −$84 -30%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $241 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $6 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $15 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $23 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $70 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $60 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $20 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $200 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $253 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,507 13h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $228 13h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $0 24h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $0 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $307 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $307 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $41 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $22 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $86 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $5 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $342 35h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 74¢ $60 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $5 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $20 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $0 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $0 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $0 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 73¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,971.97 · official $7,971.30 (match) · 3500 history records