Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d4…6d35 crypto 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,091 (-33%) realized −$4,091 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%17W / 71L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$229
14 days−$157
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$4,275
crypto 8% −$118
sports 0% −$23
world 0% −$20
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -86.8% -88.0% 0% 0% -62.1%
≤30d 8 -78.6% -80.6% 12% 12% -27.6%
≤90d 88 -28.2% -35.0% 19% 16% -42.8%
all 88 -28.2% -35.0% 19% 16% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 16% -42.8%
10% -41.2% 14% -48.3%
15% -46.9% 12% -53.3%
20% -52.1% 8% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$90 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,091
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses17 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage69d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $312 −$147 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $412 +$76 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $103 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we May 06 $6 +$13 +215%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $1 +$4 +362%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $59 −$38 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 04 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 01 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $1,171 −$796 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $268 −$182 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $165 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 7¢ $18 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 14¢ $32 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? SELL Yes 70¢ $488 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 56¢ $412 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 19d
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? SELL No 51¢ $11 36d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $104 36d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 36d
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY No 44¢ $10 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $32 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 41d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $104 41d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 41d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 41d
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we SELL Yes 87¢ $20 42d
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we BUY Yes 26¢ $5 42d
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we BUY Yes 26¢ $1 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 7¢ $53 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 44d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records