Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D6 0xd6d5…2f69 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$142 (+9%) realized +$141 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$120
sports 45% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 56% 56% +0.9%
≤30d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 56% 56% +0.9%
≤90d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 56% 56% +0.9%
all 9 +18.7% +7.4% 56% 56% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 56% +0.9%
10% -2.9% 56% -8.7%
15% -12.3% 56% -17.5%
20% -20.9% 44% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$43 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $133 $138 +$5 (+4%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$60 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$62 -60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $242 −$6 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$72 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $99 +$59 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $87 +$59 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 −$100 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $86 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $48 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $52 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $41 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 80¢ $236 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $242 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $135 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 36h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $157 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $150 38h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 3¢ $4 40h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $99 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $87 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 67¢ $98 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.49 · official $467.50 (match) · 26 history records