Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d5…658b other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$506 (-22%) realized −$330 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days−$225
14 days−$226
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$172
sports 22% −$76
politics 18% −$143
culture 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -37.7% -43.6% 29% 29% -23.7%
≤30d 39 -36.1% -42.2% 31% 31% -22.7%
≤90d 39 -36.1% -42.2% 31% 31% -22.7%
all 39 -36.1% -42.2% 31% 31% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 31% -22.7%
10% -47.7% 28% -30.1%
15% -52.7% 26% -36.8%
20% -57.4% 23% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$29 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage10d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $172 $29 −$143 (-83%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 26¢ $34 $17 −$17 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 −$13 -28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $181 +$29 +16%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $30 +$13 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$102 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $127 −$125 -99%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$39 +109%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$28 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $9 −$6 -69%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $50 +$17 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 34m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $4 43m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $37 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $210 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $43 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $30 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $20 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.23 · official $300.23 (match) · 80 history records