Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d8…e1d2 crypto 543 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$231 (-16%) realized −$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%213W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$36
14 days−$42
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$232
sports 17% −$44
other 7% +$12
weather 2% −$1
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -36.7% -42.7% 37% 36% -43.4%
≤30d 232 -17.7% -25.5% 58% 56% -30.4%
≤90d 543 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 38% -26.3%
all 543 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 38% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 38% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 25% -33.4%
15% -39.8% 17% -39.8%
20% -45.7% 11% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses213 / 330
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)543 / 543
History coverage37d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 543 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1550 history records