Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd6d9…cf16
weather · 963 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$606 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$642 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized−$642
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses94 / 855
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)949 / 963
History coverage72d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 949 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$207
14 days−$459
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 47¢ 100¢ $11 $24 +$13 (+111%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 47¢ 92¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 47¢ 70¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 52¢ 78¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 48¢ 8¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+280%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 23? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$5 -74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 −$45 -30%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$46 +1095%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$595
other 3% −$77
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 50m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -65.9% -69.1% 12% 7% -42.4%
≤30d 292 -57.5% -61.5% 12% 4% -19.7%
≤90d 949 -52.4% -56.9% 10% 5% -25.6%
all 949 -52.4% -56.9% 10% 5% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.9% 5% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -61.0% 4% -32.7%
15% -64.8% 4% -39.2%
20% -68.2% 4% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.55 · official $84.59 (match) · 3327 history records