Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd6dc…194d crypto 925 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$204 (+0%) realized +$203 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate72%657W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,288
other 1% −$19
sports 0% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -3.9% -13.1% 75% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 222 -1.6% -10.9% 77% 42% -9.7%
≤90d 916 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 43% -11.9%
all 916 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 43% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 43% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 28% -20.3%
15% -27.8% 17% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$32 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses657 / 259
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)916 / 925
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 916 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 91¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$7 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $111 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $150 −$48 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 4h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.31 · official $141.31 (match) · 3500 history records