Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6eb…5402 sports 145 markets active 3d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,767 (+34%) realized +$27,767 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%73W / 69L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$567per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$92
14 days−$112
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$28,148
other 1% −$294
crypto 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +49.6% +35.3% 27% 27% -15.9%
≤30d 26 +30.0% +17.6% 23% 23% -18.1%
≤90d 33 +31.2% +18.7% 30% 30% +63.3%
all 142 +9.6% -0.8% 51% 51% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 51% +21.3%
10% -10.3% 51% +9.7%
15% -19.0% 51% -0.9%
20% -26.9% 49% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$575) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$679 vs −$315 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27,767
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses73 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 145
History coverage116d
Avg bet$567
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $224 −$22 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$79 +78%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$33 +1116%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $237 −$234 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $40 +$53 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $96 +$48 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $81 −$4 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$97 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 −$5 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$62 -90%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$48 +234%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5 Mar 25 $4,000 +$3,992 +100%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5 Mar 25 $3,000 +$2,876 +96%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Mar 24 $2,000 −$115 -6%
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 243.5 Mar 24 $3,000 +$3,000 +100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Mar 24 $5,200 +$5,322 +102%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Mar 23 $2,500 +$2,708 +108%
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 218.5 Mar 22 $2,259 −$2,259 -100%
AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $2,584 +$2,176 +84%
Lakers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Mar 22 $1,266 +$1,318 +104%
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Mar 21 $671 +$595 +89%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5 Mar 20 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) Mar 19 $2,449 +$2,549 +104%
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 215.5 Mar 19 $2,810 +$2,810 +100%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Mar 17 $2,790 +$2,474 +89%
Suns vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5 Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5 Mar 15 $300 +$234 +78%
Magic vs. Heat: O/U 234.5 Mar 15 $300 +$245 +82%
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5 Mar 15 $300 +$194 +65%
Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5 Mar 15 $300 +$217 +72%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5 Mar 15 $300 +$226 +75%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5 Mar 15 $300 +$236 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 29¢ $17 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $96 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY 3¢ $21 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 8¢ $41 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $237 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $93 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $144 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $96 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $40 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $77 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $81 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $41 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records