Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd6ec…2ecb
tech · 8 markets active 3d ago
8.5score
+$6,865 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,119 · open −$254
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY tech specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,201
Realized+$7,119
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3,174
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6,844
14 days+$6,844
30 days+$6,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $3,200 $3,126 −$74 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $255 $74 −$181 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,163 +$1,933 +37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $4,990 +$4,680 +94%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $990 +$92 +9%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $871 +$139 +16%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4,900 +$167 +3%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $5,000 +$108 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 53% +$21
other 47% +$6,844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $3,211 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,678 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,082 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,082 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,531 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,531 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,550 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $2,590 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $990 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,010 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $871 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $871 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $896 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4,094 4d
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,900 50d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5,000 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 75% +42.0%
≤30d 4 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 75% +42.0%
≤90d 6 +27.0% +14.9% 100% 50% +19.9%
all 6 +27.0% +14.9% 100% 50% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.9% 50% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.9% 33% +8.4%
15% -6.1% 33% -2.1%
20% -15.3% 17% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,200.65 · official $3,200.66 (match) · 27 history records