Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd6ef…9a9f sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$981 (-11%) realized −$1,213 · open +$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$202
14 days+$27
30 days−$1,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$827
other 24% −$192
crypto 4% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 57% +1.8%
≤30d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 46% 46% -20.7%
≤90d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 46% 46% -20.7%
all 46 -18.5% -26.3% 46% 46% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 46% -20.7%
10% -33.3% 43% -28.3%
15% -39.8% 41% -35.2%
20% -45.7% 35% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$165 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,123
Realized−$1,213
Unrealized+$232
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage21d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $400 $631 +$231 (+58%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 41¢ 42¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 37¢ 38¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 54¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $405 +$322 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $202 +$72 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $201 +$58 +29%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $202 +$137 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $201 +$43 +21%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 04 $204 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $202 +$101 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $302 −$300 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $75 +$125 +165%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $139 −$138 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $146 +$154 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $223 +$177 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 01 $97 −$96 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $125 +$74 +59%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 01 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $67 +$33 +50%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 01 $193 +$107 +56%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 01 $103 +$96 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 01 $107 +$193 +181%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $507 +$454 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $411 +$368 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $549 −$540 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $92 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $204 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 10h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $102 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 47h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $304 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $405 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 48¢ $54 11d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 73¢ $202 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $101 13d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 13d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 14d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 33¢ $5 14d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Guatemala 38¢ $204 15d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 16d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 16d
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $302 16d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $203 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,122.87 · official $1,122.87 (match) · 78 history records