Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd6f0…246a crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%69W / 23L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$12
culture 24% −$6
other 21% +$4
crypto 9% +$6
economics 5% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 79% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.4%
all 92 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses69 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage206d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? Jun 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 March 2-8? Mar 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 20 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Mar 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $67 15d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 31d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 31d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 52d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 63d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 67d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $31 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 67d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 67d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $21 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records