Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6f4…7b45 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-11%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 29% -14.4%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 23 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 30% -24.5%
all 23 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 30% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 30% -24.5%
10% -32.9% 26% -31.7%
15% -39.4% 22% -38.3%
20% -45.3% 22% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage69d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 10 $11 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$13 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 10 $12 +$24 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$8 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 10 $25 −$19 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$7 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records