Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6f4…ef6a other 540 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$985 (-2%) realized −$840 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%206W / 322L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$2,658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$462
7 days−$22
14 days−$258
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$169
sports 21% −$961
politics 9% −$920
culture 3% +$170
world 3% +$689
tech 1% −$97
crypto 1% +$21
finance 0% +$89
economics 0% +$8
weather 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -35.8% -41.9% 26% 22% -10.0%
≤30d 74 -27.6% -34.5% 34% 32% -10.2%
≤90d 143 -20.9% -28.4% 33% 32% -24.5%
all 528 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 38% -11.6%
10% -22.9% 36% -20.1%
15% -30.4% 32% -27.8%
20% -37.2% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$70 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$2,658
Realized−$840
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses206 / 322
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions11
Markets (closed)528 / 540
History coverage603d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,420 $1,392 −$28 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $780 $705 −$75 (-10%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $112 $144 +$32 (+29%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $140 $115 −$25 (-18%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 28¢ 23¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 +$68 +350%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $150 −$26 -18%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $225 −$30 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $834 +$471 +56%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $123 +$71 +58%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $1,252 +$53 +4%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $65 −$2 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -10%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$81 +158%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $123 +$77 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $57 +$43 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $72 +$68 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$302 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $105 +$95 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $244 +$256 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $83 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 18h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 25h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $12 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $14 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $0 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 85¢ $233 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,305 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $195 31h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $195 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $366 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 31h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $569 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $266 31h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $117 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 63¢ $62 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 31h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 31h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 31h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,657.97 · official $2,657.98 (match) · 2409 history records