Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6f7…610a crypto 854 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$994 (-4%) realized −$994 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%424W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,511
sports 1% −$164
politics 0% −$85
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -75.2% -77.6% 8% 8% -85.0%
≤30d 391 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 36% -38.9%
≤90d 945 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 42% -28.1%
all 945 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 42% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 42% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 39% -35.0%
15% -32.3% 34% -41.3%
20% -39.0% 27% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$994
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses424 / 521
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)945 / 854
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 945 Trades
no open positions (444 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $110 −$112 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11PM ET Jun 20 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during National Agriculture Day e Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$78 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$16 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$60 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records