Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6f7…a146 sports 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$268 (+1%) realized +$271 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%107W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$249
14 days+$204
30 days−$1,476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$240
other 10% +$573
world 0% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +79.8% +62.7% 83% 83% +39.3%
≤30d 54 -33.2% -39.6% 31% 26% -41.8%
≤90d 134 +1.6% -8.1% 51% 47% -3.0%
all 215 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 46% -8.7%
10% -16.7% 43% -17.5%
15% -24.8% 35% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 29% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$100 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$271
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses107 / 108
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 216
History coverage118d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 68¢ $139 $136 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 +$80 +250%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$50 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11 +$19 +178%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $187 +$109 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $119 +$31 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $16 −$12 -76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $131 +$74 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $113 −$111 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $85 +$25 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $36 +$67 +186%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $88 +$32 +36%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $145 +$60 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $83 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $31 +$163 +525%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $29 +$71 +245%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $72 +$30 +42%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 28 $60 −$57 -95%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $177 +$23 +13%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 28 $18 −$15 -85%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $133 −$133 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 28 $65 −$61 -95%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $138 −$138 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 28 $116 −$116 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 28 $211 −$1 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $141 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $73 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 62¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $48 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $140 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 99¢ $150 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $119 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Legacy $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 16¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $205 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $131 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $113 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 77¢ $85 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 45¢ $42 11d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 45¢ $80 12d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 42¢ $59 13d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 35¢ $36 13d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 73¢ $88 13d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 70¢ $145 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 40¢ $83 16d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 54¢ $34 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.35 · official $138.37 · 661 history records