Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D6 0xd6f7…723f other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$144 (-4%) realized −$298 · open +$154

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$1,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$211

7 days−$157

14 days−$79

30 days−$220

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+11.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+43.2%	+29.6%	33%	33%	-33.7%
≤30d	21	+22.9%	+11.2%	43%	43%	-24.4%
≤90d	21	+22.9%	+11.2%	43%	43%	-24.4%
all	21	+22.9%	+11.2%	43%	43%	-24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.2%	43%	-24.4%
10%	+0.6%	43%	-31.6%
15%	-9.1%	43%	-38.2%
20%	-18.1%	33%	-44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late +36% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$37 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$1,954

Realized−$298

Unrealized+$154

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions7

Markets (closed)21 / 34

History coverage19d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$400	$517	+$117 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	26¢	$300	$494	+$194 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	11¢	$400	$289	−$111 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$200	$216	+$16 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$200	$186	−$14 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$150	$135	−$15 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$150	$118	−$32 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$206	−$97	-47%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$195	−$41	-21%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$154	−$68	-44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$15	+$18	+121%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND	Jun 23	$10	+$36	+350%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$103	$0	-0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$10	+$8	+79%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$103	+$51	+50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$14	+134%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$205	−$16	-8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$13	+$18	+135%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$2	-31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$26	+$55	+216%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$45	+$19	+42%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$103	−$100	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	21m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$109	1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29	BUY	32¢	$5	8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$307	45h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$154	45h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$86	45h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$154	3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan vs. Swede	BUY	6¢	$5	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-	BUY	47¢	$10	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-	BUY	33¢	$10	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	45¢	$15	6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	22¢	$10	7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$102	8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$154	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	55¢	$10	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	16¢	$5	10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	48¢	$10	11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$195	11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$189	12d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	SELL	82¢	$31	12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$4	13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	34¢	$13	13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	44¢	$25	14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	30¢	$26	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,954.44 · official $1,954.44 (match) · 72 history records