Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6fb…05f3 crypto 54 markets active 19h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$344 (+5%) realized +$345 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
economics 38% −$3
crypto 14% +$1
other 6% +$348
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 48 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 50 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 2% -9.2%
all 53 +1.8% -7.9% 92% 4% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -4.7%
10% -16.7% 4% -13.8%
15% -24.7% 4% -22.2%
20% -32.1% 4% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.38 per $1 lost it wins $51.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage137d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $2,490 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET May 26 $24 +$21 +90%
Will Solana reach $110 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 18h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 43h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $2,487 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2,490 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.67 · official $3.67 (match) · 106 history records