Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6fd…3cf1 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,068 (+10%) realized +$5,025 · open +$1,043
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%33W / 19L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,134per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +17.7% +6.4% 63% 63% -4.8%
≤30d 52 +17.7% +6.4% 63% 63% -4.8%
≤90d 52 +17.7% +6.4% 63% 63% -4.8%
all 52 +17.7% +6.4% 63% 63% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 63% -4.8%
10% -3.7% 63% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -13.0% 62% -22.2%
20% -21.6% 52% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,550) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$645 vs −$1,112 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,643
Realized+$5,025
Unrealized+$1,043
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses33 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,134
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 36¢ 100¢ $600 $1,643 +$1,043 (+174%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $395 +$268 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $308 +$79 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $207 +$101 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $140 +$75 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$67 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $3,128 −$3,076 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $1,776 +$1,363 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $1,994 −$1,915 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $1,550 +$713 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $1,236 +$802 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $2,085 −$1,908 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $2,077 +$1,246 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $1,199 −$1,179 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $1,839 +$1,426 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $1,052 −$458 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2,482 −$1,749 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $2,601 −$2,142 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $2,327 +$1,959 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $5,163 −$670 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $2,242 −$1,574 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $1,245 +$1,218 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1,148 +$989 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $2,069 +$1,019 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $1,325 −$1,219 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $2,291 −$1,754 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $1,824 +$1,440 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $838 +$864 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $834 −$542 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $1,022 +$821 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $907 +$741 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $707 +$608 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $551 +$453 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $703 +$413 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $973 −$385 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $415 +$245 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $732 +$727 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $918 +$747 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $905 −$868 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $689 +$575 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $794 −$544 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $741 +$618 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $581 +$258 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $627 −$403 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $741 +$561 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $230 +$202 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $313 +$270 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $416 −$222 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $475 −$464 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $313 +$267 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $528 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $385 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $387 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $308 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $207 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $215 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $124 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $76 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $38 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $774 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $240 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $342 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $567 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $401 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $805 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $37 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $475 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $500 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $700 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $282 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $269 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $47 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $328 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $663 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $217 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,643.03 · official $982.52 · 227 history records