Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd6fd…52fb crypto 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%392W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$15
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 6% -11.0%
≤30d 110 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 423 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 7% -10.0%
all 423 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 7% -10.0%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses392 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage40d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$19 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $49 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 948 history records