Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D6 0xd6fd…f50b sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,281 (+94%) realized +$1,280 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$921
other 23% +$344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +55.9% +41.1% 60% 60% +89.1%
≤30d 10 +55.9% +41.1% 60% 60% +89.1%
≤90d 10 +55.9% +41.1% 60% 60% +89.1%
all 10 +55.9% +41.1% 60% 60% +89.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.1% 60% +89.1%
10% +27.6% 60% +71.0%
15% +15.2% 60% +54.5%
20% +3.9% 50% +39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$39 · ×6.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.12 per $1 lost it wins $9.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$1,280
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 55¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$121 +238%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $46 −$46 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$159 +158%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $202 +$120 +60%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$149 +291%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $499 +$823 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $46 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 14h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $202 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $50 21h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $51 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,322 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $499 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.54 · official $200.54 (match) · 19 history records