Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6ff…c8a6 crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,556 (+2%) realized +$1,588 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%113W / 24L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days+$181
14 days+$1,165
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$398
other 43% +$1,105
sports 10% −$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.0% -13.2% 86% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 127 -0.4% -9.9% 84% 21% -7.8%
≤90d 137 +1.5% -8.1% 82% 24% -7.7%
all 137 +1.5% -8.1% 82% 24% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 24% -7.7%
10% -16.9% 16% -16.6%
15% -24.9% 11% -24.6%
20% -32.3% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$43 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1,588
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses113 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage45d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 99¢ 35¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 30 $1,002 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,802 −$224 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $104 −$4 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2,796 +$80 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,747 +$54 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,162 +$93 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,118 +$37 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,054 +$46 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,008 +$62 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $901 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $901 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $902 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $901 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $902 +$26 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $502 +$23 +4%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $972 −$146 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,604 +$427 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +73%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,669 +$11 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,841 +$46 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,991 +$161 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,936 +$24 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $340 +$7 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,075 +$157 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $2,903 +$35 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $2,904 +$60 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,968 +$9 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$17 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,802 +$44 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $2,702 +$25 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $708 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $273 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,001 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1,002 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 85¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 85¢ $882 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 85¢ $390 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 85¢ $239 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 97¢ $1,802 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 98¢ $700 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 97¢ $801 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 96¢ $294 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,747 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $37 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $158 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,750 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,153 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 98¢ $117 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.73 · official $22.04 · 380 history records