Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6ff…1182 crypto 1726 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$438 (+1%) realized +$438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%1613W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day76.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$628
7 days−$523
14 days−$400
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 -13.7% -21.9% 83% 5% -15.5%
≤30d 1772 -4.1% -13.2% 91% 7% -10.3%
≤90d 1772 -4.1% -13.2% 91% 7% -10.3%
all 1772 -4.1% -13.2% 91% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 7% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 4% -18.9%
15% -29.1% 3% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1613 / 159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1772 / 1726
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day76.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1772 Trades
no open positions (138 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $13 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.64 · official $67.64 (match) · 3500 history records