Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd702…daa9 other 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,581 (-9%) realized −$654 · open −$927
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%52W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$12,401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$704
14 days−$704
30 days−$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$777
finance 5% −$594
crypto 1% −$141
politics 1% −$19
world 1% +$42
culture 1% −$63
sports 0% −$35
economics 0% −$24
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -78.4% -80.4% 17% 12% -69.5%
≤30d 24 -78.4% -80.4% 17% 12% -69.5%
≤90d 24 -78.4% -80.4% 17% 12% -69.5%
all 192 -24.1% -31.3% 27% 26% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 26% -31.6%
10% -37.9% 24% -38.2%
15% -43.9% 22% -44.1%
20% -49.4% 20% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$12,401
Realized−$654
Unrealized−$927
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses52 / 140
Open positions26
Markets (closed)192 / 218
History coverage198d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $9,345 $9,134 −$211 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1,067 $1,008 −$59 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $404 $770 +$366 (+90%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $500 $382 −$118 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $300 $258 −$42 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $151 $253 +$102 (+68%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $500 $187 −$312 (-62%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $138 −$162 (-54%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $500 $83 −$417 (-83%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $31 $18 −$13 (-42%)
Will Beyoncé be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $24 $5 −$19 (-79%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+122%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 19 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Jun 19 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Jun 19 $100 +$21 +21%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on December 18? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-14? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-19? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on December 15? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 10 $31 +$58 +188%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-26? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-06? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on December 18? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-01? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-01-29? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-01-29? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-14? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-01-28? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-01? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-20? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-28? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-01-31? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $213 1h
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 55d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 55d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 55d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,401.05 · official $12,401.76 (match) · 902 history records