Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd703…af39 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+2%) realized +$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 40% -13.1%
≤30d 25 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 25 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 40% -13.1%
all 25 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 40% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 36% -21.5%
15% -33.0% 32% -29.0%
20% -39.6% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$614) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$543 vs −$392 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $177 +$188 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $132 +$44 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $1,344 −$1,300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $1,335 −$258 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $527 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $419 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $694 −$663 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $525 +$1,212 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $614 +$297 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $630 +$1,532 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $508 −$121 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $235 −$226 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $365 +$631 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $734 +$1,246 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $194 −$185 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $187 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $392 −$375 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $141 −$100 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $265 +$101 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $307 +$148 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $177 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $132 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $68 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $723 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $553 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $494 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $583 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $847 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $489 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $512 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $514 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $191 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $46 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $290 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $517 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $211 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $522 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $376 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records