Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd705…5d0c other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$6
other 32% −$9
politics 8% +$9
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.2%
all 55 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage476d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $145 −$4 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $36 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 03 $7 $0 -2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 02 $4 −$2 -60%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 02 $7 $0 +1%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $1.2-1.5m opening weekend? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $3 $0 -8%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $1 $0 -50%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $19 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $38 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $38 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records