Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd708…ac24 world 86 markets active 3d ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate40%33W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$10
other 21% −$6
sports 14% −$5
politics 12% −$1
economics 7% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 42% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 1% -9.7%
all 83 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 1% -10.1%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses33 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage541d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 87¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -18%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $23 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $47 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $27 +$1 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $108 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $67 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $68 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $22 −$5 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $34 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $36 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $147 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $4 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $2 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $3 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $0 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $4 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $22 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $23 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $25 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $23 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $23 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $22 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 11d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 11d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $1 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.27 · official $0.00 · 360 history records